Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP, Pool
President Donald Trump’s go-to pollster released a new poll that showed Republicans are trending towards getting smacked in the 2026 midterms.
The poll from FabrizioWard found “the national general Congressional ballot currently favors Democrats by a seven-point margin.”
FabrizioWard is the strategy and consulting firm led by Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward; Fabrizio is a veteran Republican strategist who served as Trump’s chief pollster in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
The firm’s latest figures were released last week on December 18. It was based on 1,000 registered voters across the U.S.
FabrizioWard’s memorandum was focused on seeing if there was widespread support for federal standards to protect minors from artificial intelligence.
The memo urged Republicans to “protect kids” by backing AI regulations — a move that would win big support among parents, the firm said.
“Republicans have a choice: they can take advantage of a strong desire among the electorate for the federal government to protect kids and empower parents from AI harms and gain needed electoral support, or they can take the minority view arguing for state-by-state regulations,” the firm said. “There is huge electoral upside to taking action, while standing in the way of national standards to protect kids and empower parents opens Republicans up to significant electoral damage.”
This is one way Republicans can not only narrow the lead Democrats have heading into ’26, FabrizioWard wrote in its memo — it would be a way to completely flip the midterms.
The firm said more than 80% of voters support a national law requiring AI companies to implement “reasonable steps to reduce risk to minors, including risks of cyberbullying, mental health issues, sexual exploitation,” drug use, gambling, and self-harm.
“By supporting the policies discussed above to protect kids and empower parents, Republicans have an opportunity to lift their ballot support significantly, turning a 7-point deficit into a 13- point advantage, a net 20-point gain,” the firm wrote.
The Trump Administration appears to be well-aware the midterms are not looking great for Republicans, at least right now. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said earlier this month that Trump will campaign like it is a presidential election year in order to boost Republican turnout.
“Typically in the midterms it’s not about who’s sitting at the White House. You localize the election, and you keep the federal officials out of it,” Wiles said. “We’re actually going to turn that on its head and put him on the ballot because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters.”
And there appears to be a bit of a rebrand going on, with Donald Trump Jr. saying at AmericaFest this past weekend the Republican Party is no longer a thing — he said the conservative movement is now dubbed the “America First Party” or the “Make America Great Again Party.” Vice President JD Vance seemed to agree when he took the stage later, using the same America First Party phrase.
